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The Energy Agency raises its estimates of the growth of global demand for oil with the energy crisis In the current and next years

  • 14 October, 2021
  • 3:12 pm EEST

The International Energy Agency raised its estimates of the growth of global demand for oil in the current and next year, noting that the current energy crisis may boost consumption.

According to the monthly report issued today, Thursday; The agency raised its estimates for the growth of global demand for crude by about 170 and 210 thousand barrels per day in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

After this revision of estimates, global oil demand is likely to grow by about 5.5 million barrels per day this year and by about 3.3 million barrels per day in 2022, according to the Energy Agency.

 

Energy Crisis

The Paris-based agency said the current energy crisis has boosted the shift from natural gas and coal to oil; Which would boost demand for crude by about 500,000 barrels per day until the first quarter of 2022 compared to normal conditions.

The energy agency added that global gasoline demand is now only 2% below pre-corona levels, compared to a deficit of more than 10% at the beginning of this year.

It said the impact of the transition to oil from the energy crisis on its demand outlook mitigated the weak economic outlook, according to the report.

However, the International Agency warned that current moves by the OPEC + alliance on easing the oil supply cut agreement may reverse global stockpile drawdowns by the middle of next year.

 

Back To Before The Pandemic

The IEA believes that global oil demand will return to pre-corona levels in 2022, with total demand going to be 99.6 million barrels per day, after reaching 96.3 million in 2021.

These expectations are higher than previous assessments of total oil demand in the current and next year, which are 96.1 and 99.4 million barrels per day, respectively.

These estimates are consistent with OPEC’s view that global demand for oil will return to pre-pandemic levels next year.

Will oil demand reach pre-Corona levels in 2022?

Oil Supply

Global oil supply resumed its upward trend as OPEC+ continued to ease cuts, the United States recovered from Hurricane Ida and maintenance work waned, according to the report.

The International Agency expects that from September until the end of 2021, global production of crude is set to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day, with the OPEC + alliance pumping 1.5 million, and non-OPEC + countries producing the rest.

The total global oil supply fell by about 260,000 barrels per day last September to 96 million barrels per day, with the severe losses caused by the American hurricane.

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