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OPEC+ JMMC meeting: What you need to know

  • 01 June, 2021
  • 2:54 pm EEST

Before the end of the session, oil continued to keep higher, up 2.8% at around $68.20.

Let’s review the production quota commitment figures for the current agreement before holding today’s meetings:

Let’s start with the 13 OPEC member countries; I remind everyone that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are exempt from the current agreement:

– Only 4 countries (excellent number) did not abide by the agreement, headed by Iraq and Gabon, where they represent 82% of the shares not committed.
– Saudi Arabia, as it appears, is leading the countries that have lowered their requirements.
– Every day there are about 2 million barrels of production above required.
– 95% of this additional production is the responsibility of 3 countries: Russia, South Sudan, Kazakhstan.

If we collect data from the countries of the OPEC Plus alliance, we will notice that the coalition has cut approximately 5.7 million barrels per day additional.
There are 3.4 million barrels per day in non-compliance production quotas, of which 5 countries are responsible for 90%:
Russia 31%
Iraq 22%
South Sudan 14%
Gabon 12%
Kazakhstan 11%

At first glance, these numbers may seem bad, but if we take into account the commitment ratio, the matter will differ slightly, and we will notice that the commitment to production quotas in the current agreement is the highest in the history of any previous agreement for members of the OPEC Plus alliance or even any previous agreement for members of the OPEC group.

We note that the commitment ratio of OPEC group members is 107.6%, led by Saudi Arabia and Angola
Even countries known to be noncompliant are superbly committed, such as Nigeria and even Iraq
We note the commitment of non-member states, 94.7%, that it is very excellent compared to the commitment of these countries in previous OPEC Plus agreements.

At today’s OPEC+ meeting, no discussion will take place on how Iran will return to the oil market in case sanctions are lifted, nor will the meeting make a decision. Perhaps Minister Zangeneh will present a short report on the trend of developments, a tweet by Reza Zandi Iranian journalist.

 

 

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