The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has lowered its forecast for the growth of global demand for oil this year, as well as the expectations of oil supply from outside it.
According to the organization’s monthly report – issued today, Wednesday – the oil supply decreased last August by about 0.6 million barrels per day, with the disruptions of Hurricane Ida in the US Gulf Coast, and the fire of an offshore platform in Mexico.
OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 5.8 million barrels per day, compared to 6 million barrels per day estimated last month.
This means that total global demand for crude is expected to reach 96.60 million barrels per day this year, according to the report.
The downward revision takes into account the actual data mainly, despite the positive outlook for oil demand in the last quarter of the year, supported by seasonal demand for petrochemicals and heating, as well as the possibility of switching from natural gas to oil in the electricity generation sector.
While the organization kept its estimates of global oil demand growth next year unchanged at 4.15 million barrels per day, so that the total is expected to record 100.76 million barrels per day in 2022, exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
Supply From Outside OPEC
OPEC has cut estimates of non-OPEC oil supply growth this year by about 260,000 barrels per day, which is expected to grow by 0.66 million barrels per day.
This means that the average oil supply from non-OPEC countries will reach 63.64 million barrels per day this year.
OPEC expects oil supplies to increase this year from Canada, Russia, China, Norway and Brazil, while oil supply is expected to decrease in the United States, the United Kingdom, Colombia, Indonesia and Egypt.
For 2022, OPEC raised its estimates for the growth of oil supply from outside the organization by 0.1 million barrels per day, to be expected to reach 3 million barrels per day.
Total non-OPEC supply is likely to reach 66.66 million barrels per day next year, according to the report.
The production of OPEC member countries increased by 468,000 barrels per day during last September, on a monthly basis, to reach 27.328 million barrels per day.
This comes with an increase in production from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia by about 156 and 139 thousand barrels per day, respectively.